The Buncefield Incident occurred in 2005 and resulted in explosions that caused a huge fire, engulfing more than 20 large storage tanks over a large part of the Buncefield depot in the UK. The fire burned for five days, destroying much of the depot. The plume of black smoke from the burning fuel went high into the atmosphere and could be seen from many miles away in satellite images.

In this presentation, Patrick Walker (Senior Risk Consultant) discusses implications that the Buncefield incident had for risk analysis, with a focus on quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Patrick discusses a practical approach for incorporating a Buncefield-type explosion in a QRA.

The solution was to develop an analytical approach that balances the level of detail required against the needs of the assessment. Patrick highlighted the importance of incorporating sufficient rigour in the analysis to demonstrate an appreciation of incidents like that which occurred at Buncefield incident by including the key aspects of the expected frequency and consequence, as described in the Buncefield investigation reports. This approach incorporates the Buncefield-type explosion scenario efficiently into a QRA, whilst also capturing relevant site-specific elements.

To read more, download the presentation slides here.